Future Stock Returns

As Mark Twain once said,  "Prediction is difficult - especially about the future." And while investors would wish otherwise, predictions about the stock market are especially difficult. Many investors will use historical returns as an estimate of future returns. However, the job of an analyst is to make stock market predictions based off additional evidence. Recently, Vanguard, one of the largest mutual fund companies in the world, released its 10-year annualized forecast for financial markets. Vanguard is estimating only a 4.7% to 6.7% annual return for large-cap U.S. stocks and a 5.0% to 7.0% annual return for small cap stocks. So will the stock market achieve its historical average return over the next 10 years, or is Vanguard correct? Check back with us in 2033!