Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Your Song (Is For Sale)

Any stream of cash flows can potentially be sold for the present value of its cash flows. And one of the biggest cash flows being sold recently is an artist's song catalog. The owner of a song catalog receives the cash flows from the royalty paid whenever a song is played. It was announced yesterday that Justin Bieber's song catalog was sold for a reported $200 million. And although we agree that this is a tidy sum, it is still smaller than the $500 million that Bruce Springsteen or $300 million that Bob Dylan received last year for similar sales. The price isn't cheap as song catalogs are reportedly being sold for 30 times annual royalties.

Future Stock Returns

As Mark Twain once said,  "Prediction is difficult - especially about the future." And while investors would wish otherwise, predictions about the stock market are especially difficult. Many investors will use historical returns as an estimate of future returns. However, the job of an analyst is to make stock market predictions based off additional evidence. Recently, Vanguard, one of the largest mutual fund companies in the world, released its 10-year annualized forecast for financial markets. Vanguard is estimating only a 4.7% to 6.7% annual return for large-cap U.S. stocks and a 5.0% to 7.0% annual return for small cap stocks. So will the stock market achieve its historical average return over the next 10 years, or is Vanguard correct? Check back with us in 2033!

Wednesday, January 11, 2023

It Was In My Other Pocket

Have you ever been short on money and gone through your clothes, only to find a $20 bill that you had forgotten about? We are sure that you were relieved. The same thing just happened to cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which filed for bankruptcy back in November. FTX attorneys announced that the company had found $5 billion in cash, liquid cryptocurrency, and other liquid investments! Of course, it appears that there may be other pockets to check as the total value of missing customer assets is $8 billion.