Predictions About The Future

A famous quote attributed to Mark Twain, Niels Bohr, Albert Einstein, and others, states "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." And for stock market returns, it appears that prediction is impossible. On today's Yahoo! Finance front page, two links appeared. The first, quoting Chris Martenson, predicted that the "S&P 500 May Fall More Than 40% By Fall." The second headline, only four links below, stated "Watch: Jeremy Siegel Sees Dow at 18,000," a 20 percent increase. Dr. Siegel explained that he could see the Dow at 16,000 by the end of the year, a 7 percent increase, and a further increase to 18,000 in 2014.