Monday, July 23, 2012
Credit Rating Falls, YTM Declines?
One year ago, S&P dropped the credit rating on U.S. government debt
from AAA to AA. Normally a decline in the credit rating results in an
increase in the YTM of the debt. However, in the year since the credit
rating drop, interest rates on 10-year U.S Treasury notes
have fallen from 2.56 percent to 1.51 percent. Additionally, mortgage
rates have fallen, the dollar has strengthened against an index of major
currencies, and the DJIA has risen 12 percent. The contrarian drop in
interest rates is largely attributable to the size and resilience of the
U.S. economy and the fact that the U.S. dollar is still the world's
currency.