Retirement Options

When dealing with option valuation, you should always remember is that an option always has value until it is exercised or expires. And, more importantly, an option can never have a negative value. COVID-19 lockdowns and the resulting economic uncertainty have affected many colleges and universities. In August, a top private university offered its faculty members over 70 a chance to accept a buyout if they retire by June 2021. In response, the faculty responded negatively to the buyout plan, essentially arguing against being offered something of value, the option to retire with a buyout, for nothing.

Dividend Payments Resuming

A recent Wall Street Journal article highlights part of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 shutdowns. In the spring, 42 S&P 500 companies announced dividend suspensions. To date, six of these companies have announced the resumption of dividends, and several others have announced a timeline for doing so. For example, Kohl's announced that it intends to resume dividends in the first half of 2021 after a smaller revenue drop compared to the previous quarter. Likewise, General Motors expects to resume dividend payments in mid-2021.

VC Hits Record

Even though economic shutdowns from COVID-19 have slowed the economy, it hasn't affected the venture capital market. Andreessen Horowitz closed two $4.5 billion funds, increasing the total venture capital raised in 2020 to $69.1 billion, surpassing the previous record of $67.8 billion raised in 2018. However, there were 589 VC funds started in 2018, but only 287 VC funds started in 2020. As the numbers show, there are fewer, but larger, VC funds started.

McRib Investing

Although many people love the McRib, an even more important discovery has been made: You can make money investing in the stock market by investing in the McRib! Surely we jest, and we do. A recent article highlights the McRib effect, that is, the stock market as a whole has a higher return when the McRib is avialable. While this is a fact, as the article points out, there is an important distinction between causality and correlation. And while the McRib anomaly may tickle your ribs, it does highlight that many market analysts will tell you why the stock market rose or fell on a particular day. Most, if not all, are inferring causality when only correlation is present.

COVID-19 Stock Trading

In a positive announcement in the fight against COVID-19, on Monday, Pfizer announced a vaccine that is more than 90 percent effective. That day, Pfizer's stock rose about 10 percent. But a strange thing happened: Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer, sold $5.6 million of the company's stock. The stock sale was part of a 10b5-1 plan. A 10b5-1 plan allows company executives to prearrange stock sales with a broker to avoid the appearance of insider trading. In Bourla's case, the 10b5-1 plan was put in place on August 19. However, some have scrutinized Bourla's plan as on August 20th, the company had a press release announcing new Phase 1 testing date. 

Goldman Fined And Claws Back Compensation

Goldman Sachs agreed to pay a $2.3 billion fine and disgorge $600 million in profits related to the Malaysian 1MDB scandal. Goldman employees bribed foreign officials and aided fund officials in misappropriating money from the fund. One Goldman banker has already pled guilty to criminal charges and another has his case still pending. Goldman has also clawed back $174 million in bonuses and reduced salaries from individuals involved in the scandal and their supervisors.

An Interview With Eugene Fama

Recently, an interview with Nobel laureate Eugene Fama, who laid the foundation for the efficient markets hypothesis, was published by The Market/NZZ. The wide-ranging interview covers topics from the problems with growing government debt, stock market bubbles, the efficient markets hypothesis versus behavioral investing, the reason for negative oil prices, and negative interest rates. Professor Fama also discusses his belief that the power of central banks is much more limited than many believe. The interview is definitely worth a read.

Big Bang Goes Off Smoothly

It appears that the "big bang" over the past weekend went relatively smoothly. The big bang was the transition from LIBOR to the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) for exchange-traded swaps at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The LIBOR scandal in 2012 caused regulators and market participants alike to search for another reference interest rate that was less susceptible to manipulation. In the U.S., SOFR has become that reference interest rate.

Universities And Pensions Underperform

We recently discussed the underperformance of Harvard's endowment fund, but it appears that Harvard is not alone. A recent article shows that the endowment funds of major universities have underperformed the market by abut 1.6 percent per year. What is so interesting about that 1.6 percent? That is the average management fee paid by the endowment funds! In other words, the overall investment performance is the same as the market, but once fees are accounted for, performance lags the market. Of course, public pension funds have performed slightly better, only underperforming the market by about 1 percent.

SRI Hits Oil Companies

It appears that socially responsible investing (SRI) is affecting at least some oil companies. Five of the largest six banks have decided that they will no longer finance drilling projects in the Artic. As renewable energy becomes more widely used, oil and gas reserves may become less valuable. At the same time, since bank financing appears to be drying up, financing for the industry becomes more difficult to obtain.